Sooner or Later...Iran

President Mahmoud Ahmandinejad today called for the State of Israel to be "wiped of the map" on the same day that suicide bombers again struck the Jewish State. These comments are horrid and evil, and a totally obvious incitement for Islamic Jihad, Hamas and the Iranian group Hezbollah to attack Israel and its people with all the ferocity it has seen in the past. This is completley and totally unnaceptable. For a head of state to say that another sovreign nation to be destroyed is a public warning in the straightest of terms to prepare for war, and another holocaust of Jews in their own nation, by a hardline controlled Iran.

When Ahmandinejad won the election, a man whoes opinion I greatly respect, Sky New's foreign affairs editor Tim Marshall, said that although this man was a hardliner, we shouldnt expect to see him declaring war on Israel right away. Well it looks like the time has come.

As we all know, Iran has had some Nuclear problems. It says it is for peaceful purposes, but I had my doubts, as did many, many people. I truly believe this is why Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons, to attack Israel, and as the President has so openly stated, to wipe it off the map.

So what can actaully be done about Iran? It is a very difficult issue. There is no chance of action in the UN. Bush wouldnt think about it, and Putin is still playing cold war politics in supporting Syria and Iran.

I highly doubt the world could stomach another Iraq in its neighbour. Britain could not go to war with Iran. It could not be done by the Labour party without Labour destroying itself. Just rember the opposition we had in the UK to involvement in Iraq, and the protests would be doubelled, they would certanily bring down the government. If Blair was still there when the Iranian issue reachd a head, he really couldnt put his name to another of what people would see as 'Bushes wars.' Indeed, Jack Straw has said that action against the Islamic Republic is 'inconcievable.'

However, I think Iran, unlike Iraq at the time, represents a great danger to the world, as well as its people. Iraq was a threat to itself, and i still think we did the right thing in going into Iraq, allthough totally for the wrong reasons. To say that we should get rid of Saddam because he is an evil dictator, yes, i agree, but the 45 minute claim, and everything else, well, lets not get into that, but in short, Britain, and Europe especialy, will not follow America into a pre-emptive war against Iran

Iran does represent a danger to its people through its hardline government. I saw a picture of two young boys recently being hung for homosexuality. Disgusting. I cant bring myself to talk anymore about that issue, its too, too horible.

Iran represents a dager to the world, and more specificly, Israel. If Iran got the bomb, that would certanily be extremley dangerous, although I am confident Isreal would do everything in its power to prevent that, and I have no doubt that Isrealis and Americans are working tirelessly in Iran to prevent that.

There is a limit to what can be done through espionage and diplomacy however. And the latter seems to be getting us nowhere. We then have to come to the conclusion that Iran will eventually become nuclear capable, which then leaves us with few options.

The most obvious I think, would be Special Forces targetting Nuclear facilities, possibly with Isreali air strikes to surgically cripple Irans nuclear arsenal, but this could prove a diplomatic nightmare, possibly full scale war with Iran, and if even one missile was not destroyed, it would leave Isreal vulnerable. However I think this sort of action might propmt Iran to invade Irag, or at least the Shia areas anyway, and be possibly welcomed by the overwhelming Shia majority there. Iran has already proven a tit for tat ideaology to foreign affairs. Diplomatic pressure vis a vis the nuclear issue resulted in the deaths of British soldiers at the hands of Iran, and then the bombings in south western Iran, which their government acused the UK of involvement in, which is certanily a possibility. Therefore a crippling of Irans nuclear weapons program could see the Revolutionary Guard rolling across the oilfields of Basra, with pictures of cheering crowds on the TV.

The second option is a full scale inviasion of Iran, and thus another Iraq. This could in no way be done untill Iraq is stabilised, which could be a long way away. The British and Americans just dont have the non-consciption manpower to launch that kind of inviasion. And as I doubt we would get involved anyway, America would have to go it alone, and I cant see Bush getting away with introducing conscription to pre-emptivley invade Iran, i think it is inconcievable. The backlish would be astounding. It would just prove that all opposition has been stamped out in America if Bush could pull that off. The only way we could handle Iran millitarily is through a totally worldwide coalition. With UN, Russian, European, even Chinese support, and the only way I can see that happening is if Iran attacks Israel with Nuclear weapons. By then it could be too late, and Isreal may have been wiped off the map, as Mahmoud Amedinejad wants. However I am sure Isreal would respond in kind, which would blow up the powder keg that the middle east has been every day for so long.

I cant see anyway to peacefully resolve this issue soon. The Iranian president has fired off a warning shot, and we have to respond in kind. Jack Straw is going to give an Iranian diplomat a telling off, but Nato should admit Isreal in, thus giving Iran a clear signal that if they were to attack Isreal, then the force of the free world will bear down on it.

However things, as they usually are, will be far more murky than that, with Iran supporting more terrorist attacks against the Jewish State and British troops, while Jack Straw gives them a right seeing too, but, sooner or later, we have to deal decisevley with Iran.